College football season starts this month. No more words. Straight to the picks.
All future win totals come from Odds Shark.
Miami (FL) OVER 9.0 wins (-140)
Listen, I understand why the o/u is set at 9.0 with Mark Richt as a coach. He averaged more than 9.5 wins per year at UGA while the SEC peaked. He’s so consistent at 9 wins, that he got fired after a 9-3 season.
Five road games this season are @ Arkansas State, @ Florida State, @ Duke, @ UNC and @ Pitt. Not absurd to think they’ll lose FSU and another they shouldn’t between Duke, UNC and Pitt.
Home schedule includes Bethune-Cookman, Toledo, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame and Virginia. Should be fine there.
LSU UNDER 9.0 wins (+100)
I can’t be the only person in America with questions about Ed Orgeron. Last year he finished out a predictable season with Les Miles’ talent. Last time he was a non-interim head coach he beat two team with winning records.
His Ole Miss teams beat Memphis twice. They finished 7-5 both times.
Clearly they bring back talent in Derrius Guice, D-D-D-D-D.J. Chark, Arden Key. But they’re rotating in several new players across all units on defense. And, per usual, the LSU quarterback situation is unfulfilling.
Road games are @ Mississippi State, @ Florida, @ Ole Miss, @ Alabama, @ Tennessee. Three losses in there alone.
Auburn OVER 8.5 wins (-150)
If the win total was 9.0, I’d be out on this. But they’ll compete with Clemson – just like last year – week two, win two of three through the @ LSU, @ Arkansas, @ A&M stretch and compete with Alabama. The Auburn bye week is after Arkansas and before A&M.
The reason this team isn’t valued at 9.0 wins is because a) we have no idea who their quarterback will be and b) new offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey.
Most of the offensive line is back, Kamryn Pettway and his fullback return, and whoever plays quarterback reports directly to Lindsey. So the entire offense will be streamlined against a fairly easy schedule.
Louisiana Tech UNDER 8.5 wins (-140)
So here’s a team that just flat out scores points. And has this ad on the team website:
No that’s not a FOX Sports Knoxville banner ad. That’s a “buy an engagement ring, get a free shotgun” ad on LA Tech’s school website.
This year has been labeled as LA Tech’s coming out party. Skip Holtz operates with a second-year coordinator and a new quarterback, yet again.
Problem is, this C-USA team has Mississippi State and South Carolina in the first four weeks of the season. There’s little chance they’re able to stay healthy through those games.
Here’s a circumstance where LA Tech will likely lose three games early and we’ll hold out the rest of the year waiting for that fourth loss. Circle the Florida Atlantic game November 11th.
UAB UNDER 2.5 wins (+115)
On principle alone, I cannot bet on a program in its first year back with six road games.