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Boomer’s Picks: College Football Week Seven

Boomer’s Picks: College Football Week Seven
Boomer Dangel

 

 

ECU +36 @ UCF
FIU +13.5 vs. Tulane
Louisville -21.5 vs. Boston College
UNC +4 vs. UVA
Minnesota +4 vs. Michigan State
Arizona State +17.5 vs. Washington
Cal +15 vs. Washington State
LSU +7 vs. Auburn
UVA vs. UNC OVER 50.5
NIU -5.5 @ Buffalo

Last Week: 6-4

Season Record: 34-30-1

 

Smart Home Fix Lock of the Week (4-1):

Louisville -21.5 vs. Boston College

After getting burned for the second straight week going over on ACC conference games, I’m getting back to what we love best: improper valuations.

Louisville most recently lost on a Thursday night coming off the most distracting athletics week in school history. Many wonder if the wheels are coming off Bobby Petrino’s team. I am not one of those people.

Ten days rest, opponent who can’t score, something to prove. Louisville would be favored by 28 any other week.

Minnesota +4 vs. Michigan State

Along those same lines, Michigan State beat Michigan in a squall. There’s a team perceived higher than it should be.

It’s inaccurate to say the PJ Fleck era is off to a booming start. His Minnesota team has lost two straight games and sits winless in B1G games. And while I don’t expect the team to approach Ohio State, Wisconsin or Michigan level, it will finish middle of the conference pack. That starts with B1G win number one.

Come Fly with Me:

LSU +7 vs. Auburn

Some times a team has to rally behind its coach to keep his job. LSU finds itself in that position. Firing Ed Orgeron this season would cost the school $12 million. But that hasn’t stopped pundits from calling for his head.

Last season the Tigers rallied to turn Interim Ed into Head Coach Ed. They’ll have repeat that act against SEC West opponents from here on.

UVA vs. UNC OVER 50.5

Amazingly, the ACC hasn’t had a conference game go over in three football weeks. Seriously, the last game that went over was September 16 when Louisville and Clemson scored a touchdown more than the O/U line.

Find an ACC matchup you like this week with lots of scoring. This is mine.

Arizona State +17.5 vs. Washington

And we’ve found two overvalued teams from the Pacific Northwest. Chris Petersen actually has a decent argument: some college football fans in the eastern time zone don’t pay attention to PAC 12 games. They only see the score the next morning.

Certainly that wouldn’t be the case for Las Vegas odds makers though.

That’s why two-thirds of betting money this week has come in on Washington. The line has already moved in the Huskies’ favor. Las Vegas sets a spread to get action on both sides. Bettors move the line with their wagers.

Cal +15 vs. Washington State

See above.

Around 75% of the money has come in on Washington State to this point. Most fans know very little about Wazzu except

  1. They have a likable head coach
  2. They appear to win games
  3. They’re always well-represented at College Gameday.

Be smarter than that.

NIU -5.5 @ Buffalo

I’m breaking a personal rule going against SUNY Buffalo. But this matchup is too appealing. Buffalo played essentially two football games last week as they worked into SEVEN overtimes. Fatigue becomes a factor.

Let the ‘Dogs Loose:

FIU +13.5 vs. Tulane

UNC +3.5 vs. UVA

ECU +36 @ UCF

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